SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Seldom_Blue who wrote (20922)3/21/2000 3:22:00 PM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
Way back when I started programming (shortly after the disappearance of the hand crank!) I did what I thought was a clever little simulation based on formulas and sent it off to a researcher whom I thought would be interested. He responded with a nice letter saying "That's nice, but what you really need to do is ..." and, of course, that was massively more complex, took many months, and led to my first publication.

I feel the same way about your presentation here. What you really need is a stochastic model with price fluctuations and some way of modeling your selling and buying strategy. Remember those frequently quoted figures about how much impact one could have had on one's investments by being out of the market for a very small number of days? You need this kind of factor in this model to make it meaningful. Your model is the equivalent of being able to unfailingly sell and immediately buy back at a discount. What about the times that the price didn't drop and you were out of the stock for an extended period waiting for your buyback price to be reached? What about the times you buy, thinking you are at a bottom and the bottom turns out to be farther down?

The LTB&H folks don't really need this in the 30 yr model since there is no buying and selling going on. But, any model which includes buying and selling needs it or one is assuming perfect timing. If one could assume that, one could do a lot of things!
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News