Mike, nice post. As I read it I kept thinking you might leave something out that I might be able to add, but you really didn't.
In short, I agree the TVGIA deal is a defining moment because it eliminates the most significant competitor in the IPG space, it eliminates the legal wrangling between the two companies, and it will likely speed the adoption of IPGs by cable companies (remember, TVGIA has a better relationship with cable companies than Gemstar. I was struck in the recent SEC filing with how involved AT&T was in some of the negotiations).
You did leave a couple of crumbs in terms of additional defining moments to watch for which I'll try to sweep up:
1. The Scientific Atlanta suit with regards to digital settop boxes still needs to be resolved. The last court decision in Gemstar's favor only dealt with analog boxes.
2. The recent Tivo dispute will need to be resolved.
3. The issue of VBI stripping is still a cloud that hangs over the GuidePlus technology. See multichannel.com
It would be nice if this could be settled once and for all.
4. As Mike mentioned, it will be important to track advertising revenues. We were just beginning get a handle on that for Gemstar. From what we can tell, it's growing rapidly from a small base. Hopefully we'll still be able to track this revenue from the combined Gemstar/TVGIA.
5. And finally, with regard to e-books, it will be important to watch for the formation of value chains around this technology, like the recent partnership with Thompson, especially if these value chains enable Gemstar to eventually spin off the actual production of e-books in favor of only collecting royalties (similar to how QCOM recently spun off its phone business). |
