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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 77.80

-0.3%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Zoltan! who wrote (32891)	3/22/2000 10:47:00 AM
From: telecomguy	Read Replies (1) of 77400

Mindmeld, here is an interesting point. Optics is incredibly hot as we all know. NT can almost buy these start up Optics players with their superior technology on paper gains of their share. It seems a bit of a ponzi scheme but there is a kind of a weird cycle where NT buying Qtera, Xros, and Coretek gooses up the share price -- in effect paying for the purchase by the very act of the purchase itself. Kind of a virtuous circle or maybe even a perpetual money-machine? Of course Cisco has been using this trick all along to grow into a behomoth that it is. NT is just learning how to do this I guess. I am not concerned about translating these technologies into revenues because; 1) the optics market is REAL 2) perception is reality in that NT's perceived leading edge technology in the Optics field will likely help them to win more contracts in the crucial upcoming years The reality is that Roth is trying to assemble the best scientists in optics that he can lay his hand on for the next 5 crucial years. These "rocket scientists" don't grow on apple trees and acquiring the best minds right now to work with the lab and the customer to R&D and finish off the product developement is critical. Lot is at stake and first to the market (in this case first to control the optics backbone) is going to be key. By the way, I am not optimistic that Cisco can play the same "buy-repackage-rebrand-resell" game in the optics space that they have been doing all these years in the simple Router market. Cisco is NOT an R&D company. NT and LU are clearly innovators and are capable of taking theoretical science and turning them into leading edge commercial product. Ask yourself this. When was the last time Cisco ever INVENTED any technology of any significance or note? When you are trying to bend light waves, we are talking about real R&D, not rebranding, repositioning exercise that CSCO specializes in. There are reasons why the top optics R&D companies & scientists are gravitating toward NT and not CSCO. These billionaire propeller-heads are not intersted in getting another $100 million squeezed from CSCO. No, they want their ideas & theory put to commercialization and they have decided that NT is in the driver's seat to help them get their "baby" out to the market. Besides, as I have noted many times CSCO could not integrate technologies such as Qtera, Xros & Coretek into their platform.......they neither have the capability NOR the platform to do it right now. NT is in the lead and are stretching the barrier to entry (in fact I fear LU way more than CSCO by a longshot)

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