Just wanted to say that, with the 49% JT thought, I was only trying to scare some perspective into those playing AGPH short. I have no concept of whether or not AGPH has talked with a potential suitor for a large chunk of the company. I do believe that there's flexibility in the business plan and that JT is looking for an extension of its business to pharmaceuticals, so the match makes sense to me.
Likewise, Roche is paying AGPH for several projects, including royalties on european Viracept sales (if and when), and conducting saq/nelf trials. So, it would make sense that Roche might also have considered the wisdom of taking a big chunk. Roche is also an Alanex partner.
Looking at the Alanex deal, one has to ask "what was in the deal for Alanex?". They seemed to be thriving, and the Icos deal was signed the day after (two? three?) the announcement of the AGPH acquisition. Sounds to me like the Alanex purchase was made with indications to Alanex management that the combined entity would have the resources to thrive.
AGPH has always kept their eye on combichem. They had an old research agreement with Selectide (now a part of Hoechst-Marrion-Roussel), one of the early signals to me that keeping an eye on AGPH would be a good thing. They also had a small cc group in-house.
A Chiron-like deal for a big chunk would put AGPH firmly in a position of being able to do CHIR/DEPO-like arrangements, and fill out that "pharmaceutical" look. It was just a thought, and my 29 May comment was just designed to show those who are (justifiably) considering a short position that a sudden outside event, comparable to a Chiron-Ciba agreement, might be worth considering. The comment sounds a bit more insightful than is justifiable, given that it's pure speculation. I apologize for any arrogance. However, given the Alanex move to flesh out discovery, the U.S. sales force, and JT's close working relationship with AGPH, it only makes sense, to me, that such options are being explored. |
