MM,
sorry for the jabs, but i couldn't resist. Previously, one could always count on you for optimism. Lately, you've been alot more negative.
As for the Cajun P330, it is a great box but it probably won't matter, at least in the near term. LU sells only a couple hundred million in LAN switches, a miniscule market share and a tiny proportion of LU's total sales. The problem is LU has no effective channel into enterprise data accounts. This is why Tolly completely ignores the Cajun product line it his diatribe against the Lucent spinout.
With regard to LU's visability. They have good long term visability via the long selling cycle, but very poor short term visibility due to antiquated information systems. LU is 3 years into its SAP implementation, and 9 months short of completion. Also, given LU's revenue recognition policy, much of its business gets scheduled for acceptance in month three of the quarter, meaning if a quarter is marginal, they are unlikely to know one way or the other until quarter end. So, I don't expect any pre-announcement, but if one were to happen, it is unlikely to occur before April 3.
BTW I think your patience will be rewarded. LU can easily double from here. CSCO and NT probably can't. |
