Hi Regi,
Please understand, until January I didn't follow IBM that closely either. However, I am not oblivious to what goes on in the technology world either. The negative IBM facts, that I discussed in my posts, where predictable in January and spelled out in IBM's Q1, 97 earnings report of last week. I don't use sophisticated computer models, and I don't even know what you mean by the phrase "accrual accounting shenanigans", but I do believe that the IBM earnings report "STUNK", and I am wondering why no one else has pointed out that the EMPEROR IS WEARING NO CLOTHES.
As for your statement, "the big money also does not follow sell side analysts recommendations". You will have to define who you are referring to as "the big money". I can tell you first hand, when I was a sell side analyst for EFHutton, I sure believed that "big money" was listening to analysts. Now it may not have been Bill Gates, but many of the largest mutual and pension funds, banks, and insurance companies, used my research to make decisions. Granted things may have changed from those days, but that is exactly my point, where are the good sell side analysts now? Why haven't they addressed, or explained, the negative implications of IBM's Q1 97 report?
I have posted my reasons and opinions for why I believe that IBM's Q1 97 earnings were of poor quality. However, it is now a week after my post, and no one has presented an intelligent rebuttal to change my point of view. Therefore, I look to you Regi, and others, to either support, or debunk, my analysis.
Regi you wrote, "I'll look into it from my perspective", however, I'm not exactly sure what you mean by your perspective? I have gone to your Web page in an attempt to understand what you meant, but quite frankly, it required too much time and I gave up. Perhaps, if I get to know your thinking better, I will be more inclined to take the time, but in the meantime would you please spell out more precisely what your exact perspective is, and how it differs from mine. You should know that I never considered myself a financial whiz, but I believe one does not have to go beyond Basic Financial Analysis 101 to understand that IBM's report did not justify its recent 25 + points, move up.
As for your, "If what you say is true (without any mitigating factors to act as a countenance), the stock should see a significant slide ". Yes! That is precisely why I continue to buy more IBM Puts and believe that IBM's stock buyback program is the only mitigating factor in place, which artificially keeps the stock from a "significant slide".
Jules |
