TA update:
For previous technical discussion that this update pertains to see messages.yahoo.com and messages.yahoo.com.
The above TA was looking for a retracement from the 3/8 top in the 30 - 40 percent range; as it turned out, it was closer to 60 percent, which is within the parameters of a heathy stock's retracement. There was a nice confirmation bump on 3/17, as expected. The large back-fill is attributable, IMO, to the several bloody days that the broader markets experience last week and to the apparent sell by a large shareholder of a substantial position on 3/21 when the stock closed at 6.81.
The current chart and indicators are all starting to perk up and it looks like the stock is on the way to its next top, which I estimate to be in the 12 - 13 dollar range, based on the percentage gains in the past, the extent of this last retracement, and the general market sentiment in this stock.
Worden's BOP has been 100% since 2/17/00. TSV declined from 100% on 3/8 to negative on 3/21. On 3/22 it started up and is continuing up at a good angle. The Moneystream is also trending up and is currently about 8.70, and rising.
MACD went way negative during the sell-off in the market on 3/21 and 3/22 (thanx, unibomber, for the opportunity to add). Today's chart looks like MACD will start trending up again, as RSI has taken a strong upward direction from it's low 49.18 on 3/21. RSI is now 56.18 and moving.
Stochastics are still weak but are beginning to turn around. They were too high prior to the market sell-off, above. I expect they will firm-up with positive trading today and tomorrow.
Bollinger is starting to contract, here, sharply. This indication has preceded the last two runs by about two days.
The volume pattern is tracking exactly with volume prior to the last two runs. Volume has been green the last two days.
I believe, given the pricing movement and above indicators, ICOM is at the on-set of its next run up. The close today will be a critical milestone: it needs to close above 7 9/16 , IMO.
I don't see any indication that further retracement below the 7 1/4 - 7 1/2 range is in the cards. A good gauge to the stock's strength will be its reaction when earnings are announced, which I understand are scheduled for 3/30.
How long will it take to achieve the next top? The last two runs took 17 and 12 trading days, respectively, from the end of their respective retracements. That should provide some indcation of what can be expected this time around.
The above is based strictly on what I may or may not know about Zen and the art of reading tea leaves. |
