Noven Pharmaceuticals (NOVN) Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Noven Pharmaceuticals (NOVN)

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To: Todd D. Wiener who wrote ()	3/23/2000 12:55:00 PM
From: zizzerzazzer	of 66

Just Received Fahnestock Update Fahnestock appears to have raised their EPS estimates somewhat. They are now projecting $0.08 for 2000 Q1, $0.48 for the full year 2000 and $$0.93 for the full year 2001. They continue to have a Strong Buy rating with a year-end 2001 price target of $30. In late 1999 the Vivelle family increased its market share to 28%. The gains are holding and reflect strong physician and patient acceptance of Vivelle.dot. Combipatch is performing well with Aventis/RPR aggressively promoting it in the U.S. Noven's pro rata recognition of license payments will smooth out, and increase, overall revenues from sources that would otherwise be considered one-time events and normally excluded from analyst forecasts. Fahnestock is not fully factoring into their forecasts the potential expansion of Menorest (Vivelle) and Estalis (Combipatch) into new European markets. Currently Estalis is marketed only in Sweden (although approved in 15 countries) and Menorest is marketed in 20 countries (although approved in 44). Licensing Vivelle-dot's European rights in 2000 may bring Noven as much as $20 million in up front license fees and capture an important stream of new royalty payments. If the license payment were prorated over 10 years, it would add an incremental $500,000 per quarter to Novn's revenue and about $0.03 per share increase in EPS per quarter. Noven's gross margins are expanding due to operating leverage from increased patch production resulting in enhanced capacity utiliztion. All in all a very favorable report. Also, note that Fahnestock has nothing factored into 2001 for the possible launch of the MethyPatch. Any thoughts or comments?

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