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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin
RMBS 108.58+8.5%Nov 5 3:59 PM EST

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To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (38793)3/23/2000 1:39:00 PM
From: Bilow  Read Replies (3) of 93625
 
Hi Tenchusatsu; Re Intel's continuing support...

The thing to note is that the development of those three products predates the September '99 fiasco. They are not new design wins, simply affirmation of design wins from way back. More accurately, they are indications of Intel's inability to redirect a processor development without a big schedule slip. As such, they are bullish for Rambus, but bearish for Intel.

In addition, note that two of those three products are carefully being redirected to support DDR or SDRAM. Hardly much of an indication of support. This needs to be compared to the old Intel attitude of the box makers will have to build to our specification.

Intel is still in deep trouble with AMD, at least 50% because of the RDRAM fiasco, and it will take a long time for them to get out of the mess. It just isn't that easy to redirect a processor to a radically different memory interface, those are big complicated chips with long design and debug times built in.

AMD is supposed to support DDR this summer. Micron has a DDR motherboard out now. Wait till these products hit the market. Companies that used to be entirely Intel houses are now buying Athlon systems. I know, I've been designing with one for a while, and I've never had a sweeter system. The Intel cruise liner is in trouble, and they are in the process of pushing Rambus off of the back of the boat. The public will be unaware of this largely until the new products pop out of the hopper and that won't be for quite some time now.

Simply put, you have to realize that the Rambus fiasco has only been undeniable for six months, though it was clear to those of us who design with these things that a fiasco was quite likely. You will not see design win announcements from the last six months until this summer. So RMBS isn't dead yet, but Rambus is.

When Intel finally gets their ship of fools repointed away from the waterfall, they will begin announcing DDR chipsets. This will take them some time, they've only had six months. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry steals a march on them.

-- Carl
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