Rarebird,
<You're wrong when you think this will not happen soon.>
>>Why is that?
Because the economic cycle is ripe.
Because stocks cannot, I repeat, CAN NOT, rise at 30% annually for ever. Stocks still represent the underlying companies, and the stock market is a good representation of the economy, and when a mature economy grows consistently at over 4% rate with no inflation and zero unemployment there are only two possibilities:
1. The rules have changed (new era)
2. It's a bubble.
Since my base assumption is there's nothing new under the sun (a wise man said that), I take 2 as the correct answer.
Now, we all know what happened in the two instances when bubbles were blown in mature economies in the 20th century.
>>That is the whole point: the way you think.
You need to question that, unless, of course, you think your thoughts are beyond scrutiny.
Well. If I'm wrong, then the new era is here, and economic cycles are a thing of the past. Everybody's happy, and I will not make money from participating. Money not won is not the same as money lost.
Thanks for your probing questions. I know I sound single minded, and maybe I really am. But the underlying assumptions are very basic to the way I think and to who I am. (Who are you, asked the Vorlon...)
Frankly, I'm quite happy with that.
There are deeper things that I question, however. But that belongs on another thread.
Regards,
ATG |
