Exerpts from 3/7/00 ML report,
This is from the Network Appliance thread (Lynn). I believe the author is Steve Milunovich(sp?). Are his comments re fibre channel being a niche technology just Gilder wannabe rhetoric?
<<We believe EMC is working on a product
that will run both block level and file level commands over
IP. The pirate group working on it plans IP to ride on top
of Dense-Wavelength Division Multiplexing (D-WDM)
networks. This offering could be available in the next
twelve months>>
<<We visited EMC management to get an update on where
the storage leader is headed. The answer? Towards IP, or
Internet Protocol. The implication is that EMC is staying
ahead of industry changes and that NAS and SANs may
merge. We view this evolution as positive for both EMC
and Network Appliance.
Today SAN and NAS are often thought of as
alternatives. Although all four storage vendors on our
recent conference call thought SAN (storage area
networks) and NAS (network attached storage) are
complementary, we have viewed NAS as a potential
disruptive technology. Even IDC breaks out NAS and
SAN in its projections. NAS and SAN are each projected
to grow at a 66% compound rate through 2003. Although
the combined NAS/SAN market is only 8% of the market
today, IDC projects it will grow to 34% by 2003. We
believe that this estimate is too conservative.
NAS customers use their existing network. Generally,
NAS users run HTTP-based and email applications over
their existing IP/Ethernet network to hit their NAS box
(see NAS World diagram). NAS users do this because
they have the network and know how to operate it, achieve
good performance from file level commands, and get to
share files between servers and across operating systems.
Network Appliance (NTAP; C-1-1-9; $199 15/16) is the
leader in this $850 million market.
SAN customers build a separate network. They are
typically running database, OLTP, or streaming video
applications over Fibre Channel (see SAN World
diagram). SAN buyers want high performance on both
large and small block sizes, shared support across huge
amounts of data, mirroring of data for disaster recovery,
and LAN-less backup for better performance. EMC is the
leader in this $1.4 billion market.
We see SAN and NAS converging into a combined
world running IP. In order to capture both of these
growth markets, vendors are looking to run file and block
level commands over IP (see Combined World diagram).
Although Ethernet may not be as efficient as Fibre
Channel for certain applications, the massive growth in
Ethernet performance in the next couple of years will
likely make this a non-issue for a large majority of
applications.
EMC is working on Symmetrix support for IP and
should enjoy a lead. EMC is agnostic about which
network transport a customer wants to use (Fibre Channel
or Ethernet). We believe EMC is working on a product
that will run both block level and file level commands over
IP. The pirate group working on it plans IP to ride on top
of Dense-Wavelength Division Multiplexing (D-WDM)
networks. This offering could be available in the next
twelve months. Consequently, EMC will support both
NAS-type and SAN-type customers over IP, thus
delivering on the combined world vision and eliminating
the SAN versus NAS question. However, having an IP
network handle both file and block level information over
cheap Ethernet could turn Fiber Channel into a niche
market.
EMC does not see SAN standards providing vendor
interoperability. EMC sees FC and Ethernet coexisting
for some time but believes the new SAN standards will not
deliver interoperability. EMC thinks the standards are too
high-level and do not specify the implementation detail
needed. One vendor's products will most likely not work
with others (unless you are using only vendors from
EMC's Fibre Alliance). We find this a rather remarkable
admission on EMC's part. It's also in sync with the views
of Adaptec-founder Larry Boucher as well as George
Gilder that the consensus optimism on Fibre Channel is
misplaced. In contrast, Ethernet standards over the years
have provided greater detail and therefore interoperability.
EMC and NetApp should both be winners as SAN and
NAS merge into a combined IP world. A world moving
to IP plays to NetApp's strengths. The Internet space in
particular likes IP and is driving filer demand for the
company. Network Appliance sees a similar merger and
based on our analysis might be pursuing products based on
Intel's Virtual Interface Architecture (VIA). This would
produce very high performance data transfer as the host
computer could simply "write" directly into the main
memory of the filer's computer.
We've been concerned that EMC would be threatened by
this trend but they seem to get it. If IP takes over, just
having the Celerra NAS offering isn't enough of a defense.
Disruptive technologies guru Clay Christensen just spent
two days with CEO Mike Ruettgers. In our view,
investors should not underestimate EMC's ability to
innnovate, to climb the next mountain while the
competition is busy scaling the last peak.
[end of quoted text]
Tam |
