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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)
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To: Rustam Tahir who wrote (24568)3/24/2000 8:19:00 AM
From: TechHunter  Read Replies (1) of 25960
 
Rustam

After reading your post I went back to the CC notes ScottMcI
transcribed (Thanks again Scott!)

Akins stated on average that Cymer is winning 80% of all DUV orders (At least for Q4)

Angus stated that ASML has been accounting for approx. 33% of Revenues.

Assuming revenues to orders are a 'constant'

Conservatively 80% of 300 'Lasers ordered' =240 lasers (ASML)

240 Lasers as 33% of revenues = 720 lasers FY.

Also:
In the CC the guideline was given of 550-600 lasers FY 00
This would equate to the conservative CC estimate of 35-45 % growth. With the announcement of 60% increase in revenues (vs 45%) a 'guesstimate' of a 33% revenue increase (45-60%)
based on 600 lasers would get us over 700.

Average laser price(Also from CC) of 500k * 720 lasers =
360 Million in Revenues.

I'm missing the net profit margin from this equation. Divide the net profit by 28M shares should give us a good 'ballpark' on earnings FY00

Thoughts?

Craig
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