Jeffrey, not the latest AAII numbers, they don't. 66% bulls, 20% bears. that's the second highest reading of bulls in the history of the poll. the highest occurred at the beginning of January this year (75% bulls).
the Rydex ratio, as mentioned yesterday, remains at 0,08, the lowest reading in it's history. since this ratio measures POSITIONING instead of talk like the polls do, we can be reasonably certain that the public is unreservedly bullish.
NYSE members have btw. become BIG sellers again. the latest reporting period (unfortunately there's a two week delay, so we don't know what they have done in the meantime) shows them selling more in one week than in any other one-week period before.
admittedly all this is pretty useless info right NOW in view of the massive fund inflows. be aware however, that these inflows are meeting with insider selling on an unprecedented scale, as well as a very busy IPO and secondary offerings calendar.
my guess is that once the end-of-quarter mark-up period is over, we'll get a pretty hefty correction.
regards,
hb |
