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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: chaz who wrote (21181)3/24/2000 2:07:00 PM
From: mtnlady  Read Replies (6) of 54805
 
Fiber Optic Tornado Market Share

Chaz we need to keep a sharp eye out on the market share numbers in the fiber optic arena. As you know we are in a tornado situation and Moore states that market share won during this critical phase is NEVER relinquished. NT's 90% market share in the new standard, OC-192, with Cisco's OC-192 product not due out until Q4/00 is a MAJOR LEAD and growing all the time. On the other hand, Cisco has to race just to catch up in all avenues: mfg capacity, R&D, end-to-end solutions, expertise to set-up and maintain this fiber optic super highways.

NT and LU have been in the market for years. While Cisco is attempting to purchase basic infrastructure (e.g. Pirelli) while NT is buying key components (e.g. optical 'router' and tunable laser was their latest acquisitions) to fine tune their assault and comfortably keep their staggering lead. Cisco is running out of time to build a compatible end-to-end solution the customers need. In the mean time NT keeps pulling away.

Thought: Cisco's OC-192 solution won't be available until Q4/00 .. what do you think NT will have in the offing by then? And also consider the fact that customers in this space REQUIRE uptime that approaches 99.99999%. Who would you rather go with. The companies that have been in this space (and I mean offering a total solution not individual components) for years, whose product has already been out for close to a year (with a new product just around the block), who offers products that allow telco's to still use their existing products and scale into your solution, has built out 42+ of the last 50 major networks, and whose equipment is currently handling 75% of the North American internet traffic and 50% of the European. Or, the company that has just moved up from company networks then bought a handful of companies and has cobbled together a fiber optic 'product'. I am not saying Cisco won't be a competitor. My point is that this arena is VERY different than enterprise networking and the various niches therin that Cisco rules.

My second point is that NT's market share is very, very large and Cisco needs to do a lot of work just to ENTER THE BALLGAME. AND Moore states market share won during the tornado is NEVER LOST. In short.. time is running out on Cisco.
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