Robertson/Stephens report...
eFinance Update -- Scott Appleby - scott@rsco.com
VOLUMES UPDATE: MARCH LIKELY TO PASS 40 BILLION SHARES ON NASDAQ
Nasdaq's quarterly trading volume to date to date of 95 billion
shares has already far exceeded the December quarter's 82 billion.
The weekly average this quarter is 8.7 billion, 37% higher than the
previous period. March volume continues strong and is likely to top
40 billion, we believe. Volume in Internet and other technology
issues, which correlate closely to eBrokerage transaction levels,
are up even more dramatically. To date, weekly volumes for Robertson
Stephens NetDEX and TechDEX stocks are up 15% and 11%, respectively,
over weekly averages for the December quarter.
Even though all signs lead to investment opportunity, eBrokerage
stocks are well below their highs. Our eBrokerage index, which
closed Wednesday at 180, is up 96% from its low but still remains
56% below its all-time high of 280, set last April. While
competition has increased, all metrics indicate strong growth and
fertile market conditions. With 11 million accounts today,
eBrokerage still represents only 15% of U.S. accounts, with lots of
room for growth.
KNIGHT/TRIMARK CONTINUES TO BENEFIT
According to Autex/OTC, Knight quarter to date volumes have hit 29
billion with seven trading days remaining. Knight Nasdaq/Autex
volume this quarter is almost double that of last quarter, while
Nasdaq volume is increasing by 37%. Last week, we raised our March
quarter Autex/OTC volume estimates for Knight/Trimark (NITE $52-3/4)
to 32.5 billion shares from 23 billion, but it is conceivable that
Knight/Trimark could surpass even those numbers.
This week, Knight/Trimark announced its acquisition of a specialist
post on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange from Professional Edge Fund.
The company believes this will enable it to double its options
contract listings on the exchange, and we see the deal as an
indication of its clear vision and strategy.
AMERITRADE'S NEW ACCOUNTS EXPLODE
Due to surging trading volume this quarter, we are again raising EPS
and revenue estimates for Ameritrade (AMTD $21-15/16). We expect the
company to earn $0.07 a share, up from break-even, and $0.16 for
F2000, up from $0.04. We are boosting our March quarter revenue
forecast to $163 million from $149 million and for the year, we
expect Ameritrade to generate $585 million, up from $558 million.
Thanks largely to Ameritrade's "Stuart" campaign, account growth has
exploded while account acquisition costs have plummeted to $230 from
$438. We anticipate that it will add 250,000 accounts this quarter
and 667,000 in fiscal 2000. Consequently, we expect Ameritrade stock
could rise into the low to mid- $30s, representing more than 50%
upside from current levels.
E*TRADE PROVIDES FREE DSL TO POWER TRADERS
E*Trade (EGRP $27-7/8) will deliver free DSL service to its Power
E*Trade Platinum customers, becoming the first online brokerage to
enable its customers to access the Internet up to 50 times faster
then conventional dial-up connections. Power E*Trade is designed for
the more active customer, who makes at least 30 transactions per
quarter. This will complement the many benefits of Power E* Trade,
including Nasdaq Level II quotes, preferred IPO allocation,
commission as low as $4.95 and after-hours trading.
eConsumer Update - Lauren Cooks Levitan - lauren@rsco.com
This week the eTailDEX closed at 1,134.94, almost flat with last
week's level of 1,139.15, which was almost flat with the previous
week. |
