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Non-Tech : The Critical Investing Workshop

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To: Jill who wrote (9152)3/25/2000 12:18:00 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (2) of 35685
 
remarkable runs of old tech leaders in the last few weeks
with Cisco, Intel, Dell, and (horrors) Compaq
we got big money chasing slow growth relative to PEratios

each of the above have PE/G well over 3:1
Cisco is now trading at 150 times y2000 earnings, for God's sake
(PE/G is PEratio divided by earnings growth rate)

so Cisco and Intel are now about as expensive as Campbell's Soup and CocaCola
I doubt Cisco's growth rate will accelerate in the future
I suspect Intel's wireless operations will foster some growth, but with 95% of their business in PC's and NIC's, I cannot see Intel's growth rate accelerating either
(NIC = network interface card)

I personally think anyone who loves Cisco is racing in a sportscar toward a cliff with about 9-12 months of road remaining... Cisco has no fiberoptic genitalia with which to breed competitive products against the likes of Nortel, and to lesser extent Lucent

regardless, I see some healthy money is flowing in
heard this morning that $9 billion arrived into mutual funds on Wednesday alone
heard that $22 billion arrived into funds this week
(not counting Friday)

that is some big mofo money flow that waited for Greenspan to shut his ugly face

/ Jim
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