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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum
WDC 157.75+0.4%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST
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To: Z Analyzer who wrote (8149)3/25/2000 10:13:00 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz  Read Replies (1) of 9256
 
>> But the summer tech sell-off which can take place any time between February and October is an evil, fiendish phenomenom, more resiliant than the cockroach, more powerful than a locomotive and less predictable than a cornered tiger.
<<

Well, I can't dispute the resiliency and power, but predictability may be manageable. There is a disk drive sold for nearly each processor. So we can watch sales at INTC and AMD. Prices can be known ahead of the Q reports by checking the on-line shops. And for the general picture, you can look at Cisco and other networking sales. The ONLY purpose of Cisco equipment is to provide access to data contained on disk drives. The factor that is hard to know in advance is the distribution of revenue among the 6 large DD vendors. So for that, one has to take the shotgun approach.

Predicting share price reaction is simple. Stocks with rising revenues and earnings estimates go up. The estimates for DD stocks are still very low. WDC's estimate is -30c for Q1. That is up from -50c a week ago. If this goes to break even or positive in Q2, then $20/sh is a sure thing. The stock is up 50% in 2 weeks.

Similarly, MXTR's estimate went from -30c to +10c. The stock is up 30% in the 2 weeks. The sleeper right now is HDD. Its estimates are still for +4c. That is sure to go up since enterprise disk drives are selling very well, and at high prices. So I look for HDD to go to $15/sh or higher in 2 weeks, also.

Now lets hope for a good price report from Mark M.

Optimistically
-Sarmad
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