Posting this to myself cuz I don't have time for a long discussion, but re: CSCO:
Here's a nice piece from Yahoo yesterday (rather general):
Cisco Tops Microsoft As Most-Valued
By Duncan Martell
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Cisco Systems Inc. (NasdaqNM:CSCO - news) on Friday topped Microsoft Corp. (NasdaqNM:MSFT - news) as the world's most valuable company, the latest signpost of the shift to what analysts are calling the Information Age from the era of the personal computer.
``The changing of the guard took place today,' said analyst Michael Cristinziano at Gerard Klauer Mattison & Co., who tracks Cisco.
Just as Microsoft, with its operating system that runs more than 80 percent of the world's personal computers, and chipmaker Intel Corp., whose microprocessors power more than 80 percent of the world's PC., Cisco is well placed to be playing the same role in what will be a world of hundreds of millions of devices connected to the Internet, from cars to mobile phones and even kitchen appliances.
``Ultimately, I think Cisco's own operating system for networking (equipment) could ultimately be the platform for this new world,' Cristinziano said.
Cisco, along with established competitors such as Lucent Technologies Inc. (NYSE:LU - news), Nortel Networks Corp., (NYSE:NT - news) and newer competitors such as Foundry Networks Inc., (NasdaqNM:FDRY - news) are locked in a pitched battle to sell networking gear to service providers that zip voice, video and data over one network.
New World
It's a new world running at Internet speed and one in which No. 1 online provider America Online Inc. (NYSE:AOL - news) is acquiring Time Warner Inc. (NYSE:TWX - news) and in which speculation, which not long ago would have been laughable, that Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. might be eyeing GM to get its Hughes satellite network cannot be dismissed out of hand.
Of course, PCs will remain for the foreseeable future the cornerstone of a home's technology with some positing that they will evolve as the brain of the networked home. Already, homebuilders are building next-generation homes with home networks installed to connect myriad electronic gizmos.
And the market for PCs is still strong; about 120 million are forecast to be sold worldwide this year alone and the industry is still growing strong, generating billions in profits for the likes of Intel, Microsoft, Dell Computer Corp., Gateway Inc., Apple Computer Inc., International Business Machines Corp., Hewlett-Packard Co. and others.
On an official basis on the Nasdaq, Cisco's stock closed up 1 9/16 at a record 79 3/8 while Microsoft eased 3/16 to 111 11/16. Based on those prices and on fully diluted stock totals from quarterly statements, Cisco ended the day with a stock market value of $579.2 billion, slightly ahead of Microsoft's $578.2 billion. On Thursday, Cisco briefly overtook Microsoft, earning the moniker of the most monied.
Closing In On Russia
Cisco's market capitalization is just shy of Russia's estimated 1998 gross domestic product of $593.4 billion, according to the Central Intelligence Agency, and long ago topped the stock market value of the world's largest automaker and a leader of so-called Old Economy firms of $53 billion. GM has the highest sales of any industrial company, at $176.6 billion and dwarf Cisco's fiscal 1999 sales were $12.2 billion
Shares in Cisco, the largest maker of equipment that powers the Internet, climbed steadily so far this year, gaining one-third in value. More than 80 percent of all Internet traffic runs across Cisco networks.
Meanwhile, shares of computer software giant Microsoft have languished amid concerns over the government's pending anti-trust case, easing 10 percent from its peak, which was reached in December, 1999.
Microsoft stock jumped Thursday amid reports that it was nearing a settlement of the case in which the government has charged it with abusing its monopoly position. Late Friday, a warning from the judge in the Microsoft case that he was ready to rule, prompted a new settlement offer from the company, sources familiar with the case said.
Some analysts see Microsoft being hampered by the terms of any upcoming settlement, and are starting to make Cisco their core holding among large capitalization technology stocks.
``The stock price basically speaks for itself,' Cristinziano said of Cisco's move to becoming a dominant high-tech core holding for portfolio managers and institutional investors.
'It's The Network, Stupid'
Cisco overtaking Microsoft ``certainly validates the networked economy that Cisco is revolutionizing,' said Brian Goodstadt, an analyst with the Standard & Poor Equity Group.
Microsoft, while still a strong generator of corporate profits, generates much of its income from desktop applications and operating systems.
While the Internet has boosted demand for Microsoft's products, Cisco, whose routers carry most of the traffic running over the network, is seen as a bigger beneficiary of its growth and its earnings gains have far outpaced Microsoft in recent quarters.
``You'll probably see this shift in market cap continue,' Cristinziano said referring to Cisco's market capitalization.
And another:
San Jose Mercury News
TECHNOLOGY/DAN
GILLMOR
Cisco appears likely to
be next biggest thing
BY DAN GILLMOR
Mercury News Technology Columnist
NEWS and views, culled and edited from my
online column, eJournal
(weblog.mercurycenter.com/ejournal):
SURPASSING VALUE: At the close of business
one of these days, Cisco Systems Inc. is likely to
become the most valuable company on Earth, moving
ahead of Microsoft Corp. in market capitalization.
Assuming that happens, we'll all note that event as a
huge achievement for the San Jose-based networking
company and yet another signal of data networks'
growing role in our lives.
Being top dog will certainly be a pleasant
experience, says John Chambers, Cisco's chief
executive. But he was prouder when Cisco became
No. 2.
``The move that meant the most was passing GE,' he
said in his office Thursday at the company's San Jose
headquarters. By Chambers' reckoning, General
Electric Co. sets the standard as ``the best-run
company in the world.'
Cisco's relentless gains have been remarkable even
by Silicon Valley and technology-industry standards.
The company's market cap broke through the $500
billion milestone Wednesday, and the share price
bolted upward again Thursday, closing at $77.81, up
$5.56. The only enterprise still ahead of Cisco on
Thursday was, of course, the world's largest
software company. Our favorite monopolist also had
a great day, closing up more than 8 percent, after
reports circulated that a soft-on-Microsoft settlement
in the big antitrust trial might be in the works. A
settlement would be great, but only if it has teeth.
I'm not in the Microsoft-is-in-trouble camp, which
has lured some naive observers. But I am a believer
in what is behind Cisco's ascendance -- the rise of
the network as the dominant story in technology.
``The network is the computer,' people said
presciently in the 1980s. We'll soon need a new
aphorism. The network won't be everything, but it's
clearly becoming the environment for a stunning
amount of what we do every day.
In that world, Cisco holds an enviable position.
Chambers and his team have bought and grown and
maneuvered their way into the sweet spot, and they
deserve plenty of credit.
For his part, Chambers sees no reason why
spectacular growth can't continue -- ``30 to 50
percent a year if we execute right,' he said.
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