Wow, I am getting really confused here again. Your bullish brokers and I have a sell on the Broker index. <g>
I just ran through a bunch of charts and the indexes look like a short term pullback then blast off again. However, isn't there always a however <ggg>, I run throgh my stock charts and I can't find any longs I like, I am attempting to catch a falling knife on BGEN sometime in the next couple weeks and Q. I posted a paper trade on Q last week at our site but I was short on time and forgot to check my back up weekly chart and it appears I am early now. Ooops.
My short list on stocks and indexes though is HUGE!!! I show likely pullbacks in JPM, AXP, C, T, MSFT, and soon IBM and MCD. Index wise the XAL, TRX and Banks all look toppy and ready to come down. INTC and NVLS as well as MU and TYC are also getting close to hard sells, actually I scalped INTC short Friday also but not looking for the big one here quite yet.
(NOTE all trades are on paper as I have been so busy at work that I can't risk real money without even getting to hear the radio. My new job is nuts!)
My confusion comes from trying to figure out how my short list can be so long and yet my intermediate term 2-4 week picture can still be so bullish for the indexes.
I too saw the market pulling back Thursday and I thought Thursday's strong upside was actually a blowoff prior to the reversal and I would have gone short via Profunds had I not been so busy and missed the cutoff time. Hoping I am early and I will get a second shot Monday but I doubt it.
The dollar is weak and I don't think the market can do a whole lot until it reverses back up. Another confusion factor thogh is the bonds and notes. With them weakening, the money has to go somewhere. If it isn't going overseas then it should head for stocks.
My weekly index charts are showing weakness a few weeks out so I think we are nearing a top again before May. I have a simple chart over lay of the NYSE and the new highs and lows with some math added in <g> It gave a market wide sell Thursday.
None of my targets for the indexes have been met to the upside except the OEX. I still had the SPX aimed at 1580, the DOW 11500 and the NASDAQ around 5100.
I guess I have a lot to think about this weekend. <ggggggg>
Good Luck,
Lee |
