Zeev:
Here are my guesses:
This Q - .22
Next 4 Q's - 33, 50, 75, 110
"During the Semico Summit meeting on Tuesday, Harari predicted that revenues
for flash storage would increase at a 45% compound annual growth rate to $8.5
billion in 2003. He said flash storage revenues worldwide were at just $650 million
in 1999.
The CEO of Sunnyvale, Calif.-based SanDisk said market demand for digital
cameras using flash memory will surpass 35-mm film-based cameras by 2002.
He also told executives attending Semico Research Inc.'s annual conference that
new digital cameras were coming to the market by midyear with double the
resolution of today's systems. These new digital cameras would have a resolution
of 3.2 million pixels, Harari added.
Total production of flash storage is soaring, with average quarter-to-quarter
increases in total terabytes jumping from a 40% increase in the first quarter of
2000 (from the fourth quarter of 1999) to an expected 52% jump in the third
quarter (from the second quarter this year), Harari said."
I make no assumptions about sales, only earnings. Yes, flash memory will most definitely outstrip DRAM as we ramp to exponential growth in MP3's, digital cameras, cell phones, net appliances, etc. This will not be bad for RMBS since the markets are not mutually exclusive.
Do you realize that only 5 million digital cameras, and a handful of MP3's were sold last year? Contrast that to 110 million much more expensive PC's, and you can see that these markets are truly in their infancy.
Final proof, Toshiba is switching some DRAM facilities to flash.
"Use the force, Zeev. Don't be blinded by numbers that seem new and unusual."
Prophet |
