LOL! So, you're concerned with Pluvia's welfare now!
I doubt it's nerve-wracking at all. He seems to be very successful at what he does. I assume he uses appropriate risk-management techniques, and I doubt EDIG is the only position he is holding.
I think it's interesting that all you can talk about is the opportunity for the stock to "pop" on news. But the kind of news you are talking about is, ultimately, meaningless.
What we need to hear, for this stock to support anything near the current price, are huge contracts and revenues. At least we should be hearing some fantasy projections from the longs to justify the stock price. And those are going to have to be some pretty fantastic fantasies.
Here's an example: I doubt very much that EDIG can realize anything close to $10 per unit in licensing fees. I'll bet it winds-up being closer to $1. With the products selling for $100, and probably $50 eventually, a $10 licensing fee is prohibitive.
OK, so let's says they get $1/unit, and every man, woman, and child in the U.S. buys a player. That's $300M in lifetime revenue for the company. Now, how do you get from there to a $1.7M market cap.
Hell, what if I give you the fantasy figure of $10/unit? If EVERYBODY in the U.S. buys one, then that's $3B in revenue. You STILL can't justify a $1.7B market cap based on that.
No, when we DO see fantasy projections here (rarely - longs would rather talk about irrelevant things, like motivations of those of disagree with them) they conveniently ignore that fact that EDIG only gets a small slice of the pie (whether it is $1/unit or $10/unit) and use the total size of the market. That is, they use the total unit cost to the project the size of the market, which inflates EDIG's market by AT LEAST 10X - even though EDIG only supplies a component of each unit.
I'd love to see some fantasy projections - because by doing so, you will point out how rediculous the valuation of this stock is. You will either have to inflate EDIG's share of the pie, or engage in IOMania (remember IOMega?) by having every man, woman, and child on the planet, and the nearest 10 galaxies as well, buy a player. (At the peak, the only way you could justify IOMega's valuation - given their profit margin - was to have them sell more units than there are people on earth...) |
