Good morning, Tom -
"The looming question in my mind is will the paging device become obsolete in replacement of the much prefered PCS, when VR becomes available?"
- I don't think it will break out as an obselesence issue, as much as a move to integrated messaging. Put another way, when pricing is competitive, and the service is available, why not enlarge your screen somewhat, and get your pages, too (and email, and trade a stock or two)? That could work in a number of ways, I guess - one would be a sort of halfway, where you integrate current paging technology onto an ASIC, and pop it into an existing phone, or a future fully integrated digital messaging solution. Part of the solution lies with the provider, part with the phone manufacturer. Will paging ever become obsolete? I don't know. But the "sweet spot", and the big bucks, will be where people can call, receive messages, and access the net using one device, the phone. That market is now clearly defined: everyone can see it.
I would guess that IW will be working with Nokia and Ericsson on this - but Nokia and Ericsson are partners with everybody. Obviously, MS has defined this market, too. First to market will be critical.
How GEMS will play this is an interesting question. The reason is that it threatens to bypass (at some future time) the current paging infrastructure.
It is also interesting in that MS and AT&T will probably work together on advancing the infrastructure, given MS's massive investment in T. Certainly, capitalization within their domains will not be a problem, and then everyone else will be playing catchup.
Again, it will require more functionality in the handheld device, and that has hardware implications - ASICs especially.
It will also require a huge buildout to increase bandwidth, and use it as efficiently as possible - and how will that go? CDMA, OFDM? Existing providers will have to capitalize that, or be bypassed by the Sprints, I would guess. In Europe right now, and elsewhere, the old wireline telcos are just being bypassed. Simple as that. Whole legacy infrastructures are becoming uneconomical, not because no one is using them, but because there's more revenue, and easier implementation with wireless.
Tom, I'm not sure how it will break out, but I'm certain that it will happen. It is what the market wants, it is achievable, and those companies that don't move quickly to seize their spot will lose, big-time. |
