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Technology Stocks : Compaq

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To: Andreas who wrote (80297)3/26/2000 6:27:00 PM
From: hlpinout  Read Replies (1) of 97611
 
Not sure I saw this posted.
--
Shannon Knows Compaq

WildFire Watch

March 16, 2000
Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or supported by Compaq Computer Corporation

(c) 2000 by Terry C. Shannon

Dear Shannon Knows Compaq Subscriber,

Here?s the latest information we?ve compiled on Compaq?s WildFire enterprise server. We?ll provide more detailed
information in a forthcoming issue of SKC.

o As previously reported in SKC, Compaq AlphaServer GS80 through GS320 WildFire systems are up and running and ?fully
characterized.?

o SKC notes that our January 2000 visit to the WildFire lab in Marlboro, MA revealed over 60 systems up and running
in-house. The worldwide WildFire ?census? as of January was in excess of 100 systems. The current census is ~140 systems.

o At that time, the WildFire production rate was expected to be ?double-digits? in March 2000, ramping to ?triple-digits? per
month by mid-summer. Full volume production is anticipated in early 2H00.

o Early WildFire systems were built in Compaq?s New Hampshire facility. Volume production will take place at Compaq?s
Fremont, CA and Ayr, Scotland facilities.

o All ASIC-related WildFire issues apparently have been resolved. There are no technical ?show stoppers? precluding the
volume production of WildFire platforms.

o Compaq expects to have at least 200 firm orders for WildFire systems on announcement day. This is consistent with
Compaq?s publically stated expectations of $1B in incremental WildFire revenue in FY2000.

o While the ?200 Day One Orders? figure is dramatically lower than the 1K Day One orders Digital touted during the April
1995 TurboLaser announcement, there is plenty of pent-up demand for the belated WildFire platform. The gating factor for the
new product is production capacity.

o The tentative WildFire announcement date is 16 May 2000 in New York City, with additional events on the West Coast,
Asia, and Europe.

o WildFire seed systems are now shipping to selected customers. Systems are up and running in Compaq?s benchmark centers
as well (the European Benchmark Center in Sophia Antipolis, France just received its first GS160 system).

o Preliminary WildFire benchmarks are consistent with Compaq?s expectations. Audited TPC numbers are not yet available,
but Compaq believes it will wrest single-system tpmC bragging rights from IBM?s S80 system. (A 24-CPU S80 delivers about
~138K tpmC.)

o WildFire system scalability is truly excellent. Without massive system tuning, a 16-CPU system delivers ~3.6 times the TPC
performance of a 4-CPU system, while a 32-CPU system delivers as much as ~7.4 times the performance of a 4-CPU system.

o The first-generation WildFire features ~729MHz EV67 CPUs. Compaq could choose to refresh the platform with 833MHz
EV68 CPUs, but may wait for even faster EV68 silicon. An EV7-based WildFire followon is expected in mid-2001.
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