Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: chic_hearne who wrote (100074)	3/26/2000 8:20:00 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (2) of 1571936

chic, I posed the question earlier, how can we get real time stats on short interest? I think this is a the key stat going into earnings. Are the shorts going to get worried and cover before earnings? Or are they going to get stuck trying to cover after earnings? Will there be a new wave of shorts moving in when the others cover, thus having a balancing effect? This is anyones guess, and will vastly impact the price of the stock more than any other factor over the next 4 weeks in my opinion. How will knowing the short stats help to know what the shorts will do in the next 4 weeks? Most shorts believe they are right and won't cover unless there is a preannoucement, or unusually positive news or a great earnings report. What is the exact %tage of "Most shorts", I don't have a clue. Q1 earnings could signal a paradigm shift depending on what AMD says. Let's assume they beat whisper numbers and say Q2 will be flat to nominally above Q1. I think this is a given, many others do here as well. Given this situation, manipulation of the stock will not be possible to save the shorts. I think there's a pile of money ready to move in if Q1 turns out good and a positive forcast is given. Much of my reasoning comes from talking with veteran investors like my uncle, the guys waiting for AMD to prove themselves Shorts will have to cover if the earnings report is good and they will cause a major pop in the stock price like when AMD announced that Q1 sales were going better than expected; that announcement caused an indication on the NYSE...meaning there were more buyers than sellers. That imbalance, was in part was caused by the shorts covering. But I think what you are asking indirectly is for reassurance that you made the right move in spite of the opinions of your successful uncle and his successful broker. My answer....there are times when experience is helpful and there times when its a drag. I have not been trading very long so I had no preconceived notions as to what kind of company was AMD when I first started posting here last June. However when I started investing in AMD, seasoned investors told me I was crazy....look at its history and its fundamentals. But I had bought into the AMD story. And now many of those same investors regret having taken the position that they did. I think you have to look at history and then the current facts. In spite of its history, the current facts indicate that AMD is pulling off a coup; that they are stealing market share from AMD and that the AMD story is for real. And until one of the major networks cancels or reschedules for primetime, I am in! BTW what is "little d".....Des Moines? ted

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