"CSCO is approaching that number"
well maybe yes, maybe no. in any event i'm still holding the stock and call options. remember, i've never met an overpriced option. if you buy cisco call today and bet responsibly, you have limited loss--your entire premium.
regards
14:37 ET ******
Cisco Systems (CSCO) 79 3/4 +3/8: You have probably already read that Cisco has overtaken Microsoft (MSFT) to become the largest company in the world, but to focus on the specifics of these two companies would be to miss a more important paradigm shift that has lessons extending beyond a CSCO/MSFT story. The paradigm shift is one which we have been discussing for a few years -- the technology paradigm has shifted from the PC to bandwidth. The PC paradigm was led by the Microsoft (MSFT)/Intel (INTC) duopoly. These stocks have continued to fare relatively well, but the steep part of the growth curve is now behind them, and these mature businesses are not at the heart of the technology revolution. That title has shifted to bandwidth companies, and the paradigm shift within the paradigm shift is from circuit-switched electronic networks to packet-switched optical networks. At the sweet spot of this paradigm is Cisco. Unlike the Wintel-based PC paradigm, however, Cisco doesn't have a de facto monopoly in this new paradigm, as its hectic pace of acquisitions confirms. So investors can indeed learn from Cisco's ascendance to the largest company in the world. The lesson is that the sweet spot in technology is now in IP traffic delivered over fiber. And the good news is that unlike the Wintel two-company show, there are many opportunities in this telecom revolution. Though Cisco dominates the market for IP routers, it is playing catch-up in the optical arena. With its purchases of Cerent, Monterey, and Pirelli's DWDM division, it is indeed catching up, but there is good reason to believe that unlike the router business, Cisco will only be one of many players in the optical networking space. Some of the others are Nortel (NT), Lucent (LU), Sycamore (SCMR), Ciena (CIEN), Redback with its Siara acquisition (RBAK), and even Juniper (JNPR), which while not an optical networker does benefit from the bandwidth needs of the fiber network. Furthermore, there are a slew of companies in the pipeline. One which recently filed for its IPO is ONI Systems, a maker of metro-area optical networking hardware and software. Many more will follow, and many will fare extremely well given that they are at the heart of the bandwidth paradigm. - GJ
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