Options Message Board - Msg: 13292568

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Strategies & Market Trends : Options

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To: steve mamus who wrote (5642)	3/27/2000 9:07:00 PM
From: Seldom_Blue	Read Replies (1) of 8096

I firmly believe the rising interest rates have not been taken seriously by the market. I have read somewhere that the real rate, which is the difference between fed rate and inflation, is the same as when fed started raising rates. Another words, the rise in the interest rates so far is not having any of the effects that Greenspan wants. The only way to resolve this is to increase the difference between the Fed funds rate and inflation, hence a larger rate increase or more increases. I have a feeling that the market is overextended. The reason we are still staying here is the fear of missing out on a major run. I am guilty of this fear myself. But I really do see some tough times coming. Once people realize that the economy has to slow down, or it will be forced to slow down, the market will have some serious downturns. I am now 20% cash, with low margin, and I will have more equities cashed out by April expiration (I sold DIM calls to push the stock selling date to long term) to go to almost 30% cash. I may even raise more cash except for the short term capital gains tax. Anyone else has a bearish view? Seldom Blue

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