Email comments from BIOHF IR (ragingbull board)... biff
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
I have to preface my response by saying that it is likely that I am favorably biased towards DIAB II and its potential in the marketplace.
1. I would think that the Rezulin withdrawal has to be interpreted positively for DIAB II and Biotech. I think that the withdrawal of Rezulin does not change the strategy of the President of Biotech, which I think can broadly be described as: obtain a first Western Hemisphere approval (for example, Brazil), and then go for additional approvals, with the approval/s and accompanying increased cashflow providing Biotech with a better position for negotiations with one or more majors; but the Rezulin withdrawal does mean I think that the competition for existing patients and for newly diagnosed patients may be less intense in each market that DIAB II enters over the next few years, simply because one of the giants may be on the sidelines, at least as far as insulin-sensitizers are concerned. Secondly, the fact that Rezulin and Avandia are chemically related may in some ways limit Avandia's ability to dominate the markets it enters. A similar limiting factor may apply to Actos. The implication of all of the above is that, once DIAB II receives a Western Hemisphere approval, there should be a good deal of room for it to become a significant force in the Type II Diabetes market. An important factor also is that the licensees that are being signed by Biotech are, I understand, strong in their respective markets, with large pharmaceutical sales forces. If the data gathered so far on DIAB II are borne out by broader marketplace use and further studies -- and I think that given the clarity of the animal and human clinical results to date,there is good reason to expect this to happen -- then the outlook for DIAB II and for Biotech has to be very positive. Type II Diabetes is a major illness, that requires ongoing daily treatment for years or decades -- an effective and very safe drug would likely become a significant "cash cow", possibly a "company-making" drug. It is important to note that there may also be other applications of DIAB II: for example,Impaired Glucose Tolerance (for which DIAB II is I understand an approved prescription treatment in China)is at least as large a market as Type II Diabetes (in the US there are an estimated 17 million Type IIs and an estimated 20+million IGT sufferers).
2. DIAB II is currently being sold only in China.
3. When it comes to forward-looking statements, caution has to be exercised in making them and in interpreting them. But I would say that I am looking forward to news regarding the progress of DIAB II in China. As for the follow-on schedule of applications for drug approval, I believe that it is reasonable to suppose that this will follow the pattern of licensees. There are strong indications that the first application will be made in Brazil and that Argentina and Chile, which belong to the Mercosur bloc along with Brazil and apparently have regulatory requirements similar to Brazil's, are likely next candidates. It may be that applications in other Latin American markets, including possibly Mexico if licensing discussions conclude favorably, will follow fairly quickly. The President of Biotech mentioned in his Report to Shareholders, dated Feb. 17/00, that discussions with potential licensees were ongoing in a number of countries.
Austin Rand |
