Zeev:
It's the value of having a chance to interact with thoughtful types such as you (and many others) that maintains my interest in thread participation.
In fact, comments made by you, SB, and several others, about the efforts made in election years to keep things looking "rosy", have had serious impact on my thinking, and my investment perspective. Bluntly, I think that you are correct in this view and have been much more inclined to be a spectator (watching from "deep in the weed patch") than I might otherwise have been. The input is appreciated.
The liquidity thing is where we may disagree mildly, although Greenspan's actions of late sure support your view that he will do whatever it takes to TRY to maintain plenty of liquidity (until after the election?) in the system. Again, seeing this activity modifies the investment approach at this end, especially with respect to shorting.
I do worry about the degree to which liquidity is being crushed by the river of IPOs, reduced share buybacks and heavy insider selling. I also worry that many players share your view that the markets will be OK until after the election. We both know how contrarian the markets can sometimes be, so I will maintain some D-O-O-T-M put positions as a cheap form of "market insurance", in case it lets go a bit early.
Incidentally, large, in-place short positions have been a red flag to me ever since the Presstek squeeze occurred. An expensive lesson indeed. (g)
Best, Earlie
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