Hi Ali Chen; Thanks Ali, I like the easy lobs every now and then. Of course you know very well how things work.
Anyway, after losing its small fraction of the PC business, Rambus would inevitably lose also the small appliance and game console business as well. Partly this is due to failure to achieve the low costs of high volume.
But the main reason for the inevitable loss is that the window of opportunity for Rambus is closing. That window opened with the increase in need for high bandwidth per pin memory designs, and will close with the end for that need.
While bandwidth requirements continue to increase, the cost of pins is dropping faster. Cheap plastic high pincount BGA packaging is the first sign, the final slam will be cheap multichip module (MCM) packaging. That packaging will eliminate most of the problems associated with sending large numbers of high speed lines between chips. I expect that we will see standard business PCs in laptop size by no more than 4 years from now, and quite cheap.
So I would guess an eventual complete collapse. But that doesn't mean that the shorts can't be run in the meantime.
If you go short this stock beware. I think it was created just to give the stock market a technique for taking money from electrical engineers.
Even if you had been fully aware that BRE-X was faking its gold reports when they first came to public view, you could still have easily had your head handed to you if you had gone short, as the public perception was that everything was going fine.
Playing these stocks is very dangerous. But as far as the impact on the stock price, I would think that the P/E ratio would drop to well under the four digit level, maybe even as low as 1 or 2 digits. :)
-- Carl
By the way, how's that AMD doing? Funny that since this past summer, AMD has only tripled, while RMBS is way up. This despite RDRAM being six months late, with volumes way under forecast, while AMD has done nothing but perfection. |
