Best not to catch a falling Knife
we may hang around the pre-beta price of $12
till the payoff from ONT's CODEC becomes clear.
another theory is that 70% of Internet IPO's
are trading below their start price, which in
our case was $10. However, ONT was not a
traditional IPO as there is no researve stock
being held back now that would dilute shares.
We can safely assume there is some sort of
reserve stock deal made with TWX and UAL
for their support, but It's unlikely that will
be a factor for a year or so; just a guess here.
Short termers were already out after the launch
in the $30's. Long termers know to dollar cost
average. Long term players should not be disturbed
by recent developements with Flash Media and Cisco
that effect the Streaming Media Standard landscape.
Remember, ONT is not just client/server software,
rather it's a whole infrustructure solution to
delivering Streaming content as well as possible
using the least amount of bandwidth. This complete
solution approach will be favored by content providers
who will scramble to offer premium product to the
faster growth expected population of Broadband users.
Here in NYC, Earthlink is offerring DSL with
Covad for $75 install, you keep the hardware, and as
much as 1224/384 speed for only $50/month. If you
figure the saving on the second phone line, and what
you already pay for dailup ISP services, your cost
per month comes down to and extra $15/month for a
service nearly 30x faster than your dailup modem,
(which is twice as much as on2movies.com requires)
with the added bonus of being shareable thus cheaper
for households with more than one computer online.
This low price will bring Broadband customers in Droves!
People considering getting DSL at home should always
jump in during these big name ISP area launches, and
should NOT wait for it to get cheaper. This is because
DSL is cheapest when done in 40,000 port blocks as
it brings the overall cost to the provider to about
$30/month per person. Any installation smaller than
that keeps a typical $50/month customer from being
profitable. So whenever you see a big push like this
in your area, jump in, it won't get much cheaper,
unless you know for sure your local cableTV provider
is upgrading to offer Cable Modems in your area. |
