dbernet, actually, one of the reasons we get this peaking of the BTB to coincide with the top in the stock (at least, I think so, is that manufacturers start to over order (book) when delivery times get stretched, but that is also at a point when they once more go into overbuilding capacity. When these "phony" orders get taken off the book six months down the road, the trouble starts. The chip business can just get a cough, but the equipment people will get pneumonia. It is a rare occasion that we get actual Y/Y decline in chips sales (we did in the last cycle), but we still get major periodic massive declines in sales in the equipment sector. It is a "chicken" game to try and guess the top, since there is no rule that says the top in BTB is not 2, or for that matter is not even a written rule that when the BTB tops a cycle tops, it is historical experience only.
As for the extremes, the last one (10 to 1 and more from bottom to top, and we got there with CYMY), is the exception, prior cycles were not as severe, the last through was accentuated by the Asian malaise.
Zeev |
