John Fowler:
Re: "niceguy, re: AMD stock price
Did you ever think that a great earnings quarter may be priced into the stock? AMD had a nice run up, but now appears to be trading with the rest of the techs. What you believe about a great AMD quarter is not a secret, the street may even be more informed than you are!
A lot of folks on this thread are claiming to spend a lot of money on calls, on a stock that doesn't appear to be going anywhere fast. Hope you are right, but I would be cautious."
Comment: I appreciate your comments John...but based on my analysis, AMD the world's leader in microprocessors and flash memory, its 2 largest divisions, will earn between $4.00 and $7.00 in Y2000. Q1 earnings will, imho, show that $7.00 is not improbable! AMD at $50 to $55 certainly does not have $4.00 factored in let alone $7.00, but it will, very shortly after Q1 earnings release of over $1.1 billion in revenues and over $1.00 eps! If I'm correct at say Y2000 eps of $5.50 (and 13 million Athys combined with stable flash memory will easily do that), is a multiple of 10 at all reasonable for a growth stock like AMD which is what it is at its current price?...I'd say a multiple of 50 would be conservative which implies a price of $275...No, AMD's current and future growth is not even nearly factored into a price of $50 to $55, but I think Q1 earnings will do much to address the anomaly between current AMD price and the present discounted value of future probable earnings!...i.e minimum $70 by April 20 (and maybe much higher)! |
