niceguy,
RE: "AMD the world's leader in microprocessors and flash memory, its 2 largest divisions, will earn between $4.00 and $7.00 in Y2000. Q1 earnings will, imho, show that $7.00 is not improbable!"
You are talking about year earnings, but folks are buying calls for Apr and May expirations. You have to admit, reasonable or not, there is a risk factor built into the value of AMD stock, they have disappointed in the past when things looked great. The bet you are making is that blow out earnings will convince the street that the risk is gone. If I remember correctly, AMD went down after blow out 4Q99 earnings. They sold the news based on the risk.
RE: "No, AMD's current and future growth is not even nearly factored into a price of $50 to $55, but I think Q1 earnings will do much to address the anomaly between current AMD price and the present discounted value of future probable earnings!"
Probable is the key word. I hope the street feels as confident as you do that strong earnings growth will continue. If they again sell the news, then at least the OTM AMD calls could expire worthless.
I'm not just picking on AMD, I also believe INTC got ahead of itself.
Good luck,
John |
