Dear Abby,
You now target internet "valuations". Before, your "prognostications" targeted macroeconomic indicators...which have all been strong. In fact, if memory serves me correctly, you likened our economy to an oil superfreighter (albeit an empty one according to the price per gallon) - a stabilizing force in world markets.
I think we've heard your self-admission that tech stock price appreciation is simply inexplicable (what else is new), and defies even your models. It bothers me that I have to be on guard for your (and others') restatement of the obvious more so than an outright earnings warning or negative company press release, when every smart gemmer here knows most, if not all, internets are overvalued, according to traditional financial analyses. I realize we should give Starbucks, Home Depot, and Walmart a chance.
Unfortunately, even you can't quantify growth potential, especially in the midst of such a literal technological explosion. I also know analysts just don't want to sound trite by stating "day traders are bumbling, er, bubbling the markets up again"... "we see no reason why this trend will cease... since the ones that lose their money go back to the well, and return in 3 months". Be honest and declare to the world "Short now! Grab ye some Puts!". But stay in cash? Why let perfectly good cash sit idle until you say "Go!" again?
Far too many people are vested in the market at this point. What shall we do? Buy gold? Rush out and grab a bunch of 5%-yield CDs? I can now reliably earn 5% a day in a flat market...scalping...online...part-time. Trim our portfolio? Most day-traders clear their positions at the end of the day. Most position traders are short. I'm sure many went short before your revelation, especially if one uses even the most rudimentary TA. Just examine a candlestick for both the S&P and Nasdaq Comp. No Goldman rocket science required there.
Goldman, as a venerable market maker, is having a tough ol' time keeping us from piling on your go-getters on the top floor of that silvery building. In fact, I'd be happy to help your NASDAQ desk (for a reasonable, stress-proportionate salary and bonus).
The futures trend will remain my friend. To wit, I shall buy on the dips AND short the peaks.
Sincerely,
Scrumpy
P.S. In the spirit of your valuation declaration, please tell your colleagues to stop recommending Webvan. It is still overvalued. I know, I know, you have no choice... but let the company prove **itself** and let the numbers do the talking, not the analysts. |
