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Non-Tech : The Critical Investing Workshop
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To: Voltaire who wrote (9854)3/30/2000 9:06:00 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (4) of 35685
 
now is precisely where incompetent economists may make mistakes

GDP for 4Q came in at 7.2% revised upward
also a strong inflation index at 2.something %
some talk about the lagged effect of rate hikes starting last June

the Federal Reserve is fighting growth looking backwards
the effect of past rate hikes begins 9-12 months, which is exactly NOW
economic data for now will come in May

keep in mind: the Fed has NEVER engineered a Soft Landing in its entire history
it continues to pursue it, and ALWAYS overreacts while driving its bus sitting in the rear window
the Fed bus runs over growth vehicles while attempting to avoid other vehicles it just ran over
try driving from the backseat looking backwards, not easy

the Fed will continue to hit the brakes until its passengers slam into the front window
as far as they are concerned, big deal... the driver is in the rear seat

I hold my greatest disrespect, disdain, and hostility for government statisticians and economists
their 4Q revision on GDP was from 6.7% to 7.2%

if my forecasts were 0.5% wrong, I would have been summarily fired or moved to different responsibilities
at one point in 1999, my group's forecast was off 0.1% for the entire year to date

rumors now of a Fed rate hike between FOMC meetings
a nice scare tactic weapon
/ Jim
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