I've done a little calculation on the hidden value that the market assigns to CMGI private properties. Based on Zen's table of CMGI public properties (+2.5B$ cash) and CMGI public value, the difference is listed (in awkward format - please help: suggest procedure for graph or other, as you might wish). A maximum of 28.281 B$ is observed on Jan 3, 2000. But for the last 2 months the value has fluctuated between 8 and 14 B$, 12 B$ at both extremes and 8 B$ about 1 month ago. It is somewhat encouraging that this hidden market value does not fluctuate wildly, i.e. it probably is a reasonably meaningful representation of how the market is approaching a discounted value; this in spite of very sizable fractional properties in ENGA and NAVI, whose recent behavior has been vey wild.
The Dec.-Jan. range represents the overboard enthusiasm, at earnings time, NASDAQ boom, etc, etc...
The next big CMGI event should be ALTA IPO. We shall see what the market assign as a value for ALTA and, then, the rest of CMGI properties. I don't have handy the number of shares that ALTA is IPO'ing, or the total to-be outstanding; again, please help on this to draw forward looking conclusions. TIA.
Hidden value maximum on 1/3/2000
12/3/1999 - 1/31/2000
9.619,10.213,10.582,11.564,12.665,12.617,14.520,13.893,13.292,15.815
14.728,16.186,21.509,21.670,21.245,22.071,22.269,22.830,21.584,22.275
28.281,24.766,23.124,19.206,21.803,24.568,21.822,18.306,19.824,18.007
16.739,17.862,15.897,14.462,12.260,12.414,9.298,9.295,8.336,
11.230
2/1/2000 - 3/29/2000
12.130,13.355,13.345,12.017,12.416,12.599,12.123,11.182,9.59,10.974
11.418,11.294,10.969,9.571,8.397,11.364,10.266,8.351,8.758,11.851
8.351,8.700,10.227,12.279,10.518,10.492,11.655,10.587,10.578,9.378
10.283,10.729,9.576,10.069,13.927,13.951,12.938,11.876,11.134,11.513
12.243 |
