Scott,
I agree with much that you've said, but.... do you really think that Linux on the desktop will become a large market? I can't see it - the 'PC' will be relegated to the business customer and home hobbiest as the game consoles & high definition digital TV's become the hardwired portal to the 'net for your average consumer. Just look at where Sony is going with their playstation, and the fact that Microsoft is now also entering that market. Microsoft is also focusing on the backoffice business - I don't see them pushing the consumer market as strongly anymore. You may argue that business will adopt the linux desktop, but that will be years and years away if at all. Just look at the corporate features of W2000- they've caught up with competition with their directory services, and are ahead with their integrated encryption and smartcard support. Add in their nicely integrated COM+ and their backoffice applications and you've got a tightly integrated (and supported) business solution - with millions of developers.
What similar feature set does Linux bring to the desktop?
What will break the chicken&egg problem with applications?
Corel's poor attempt at providing an interpreted windows application doesn't exactly instill confidence.
I think that the fact that Corel's Linux OS revenue has declined is indicative of their normal "stuffing the channel" behaviour. Not at all a good sign.
Linux on the server - shure. There you have the big business apps to support it, and the IS support to run it. Redhat may have a chance.
Linux on the desktop - no apps, small techy customer base - I don't see it.
Linux embedded in appliances (browsers, terminals, whatever) - shure, why not - but I don't see Corel there. That's basically a hardware business, and we've seen Corel's track record in that arena. With the economies of scale, I'll leave that to the big boys.
Also, where will Corel's bottom line come from? If they are treating their windows cash cow as a "legacy" business as per Cowpland, and stop putting their marketing dollars and focus on it, what will make up for the decrease in revenue? 6 or even 30 million per year from Linux will not support a Co. of one or two thousand employees.
As for INPR, I can only see Cowpland damaging their chances with his absolute lack of credibility in the corporate and developer market.
Sorry, but all I see is alot of smoke, lack of focus and big promises (yet again).
Oh, BTW, who's gonna pick up Meta Creations windows Kai powertools and other stuff (they are dumping it to become a pure web play)? Wouldn't it be a joke if Corel did. Just imagine: Cowpland's brand new self professed "Linux Co." expanding their windows "legacy" application business.
With Cowpland's ADD style of mis-managing, I wouldn't be surprised. :*)
-Pete |
