I have been bullish for some time, and still am. I don't see any real problems with this sell off, and it was nice to finally see a panic out. I wish it would have been a bit earlier in the afternoon, but I think that should do the trick.
I am looking for some continued weakness early tomorrow, but with an uptrend from there. Margin selling will weigh heavy still on many issues, and the indexes themselves, but that should be a temporary phenomenon. If we close significantly lower tomorrow (80+ on the Naz.), I think we see further selling. I expect to see buying in the last 1/2 of tomorrow to set the trend for next week.
Earnings should be pretty good in my view and are secondary to rates now, again, in my mind. My one real fear is that many believe a 50 point raise is on the way but a majority believe 25 is the number. I don't like the majority to be disappointed, and a tailspin will occur if we expect 25 and get 50. I personally believe the fed needs to wait a couple of months. It takes 6 mos. for hikes to affect supply/demand etc. Raising continually to keep things in "check", is dangerous if we are slowing already. Recent hikes could bite us in the butt, and I would not be surprised to see another raise, followed by an effect on earnings. ........ but Mr. Greenspan has never called me to ask my opinion.
Traders needed a wake-up and unfortunately, many without the discipline to trade, are through now for good. The last couple of days probably took out quite a few. Margin is a dangerous thing if not used correctly. 90% of the time, I only use it intraday.
For the most part, I have been trading sideways the last week. But in this market, during this decline, I'll take it ...... I think VRSN, SDLI, QCOM, ZOOX, DRIV, NSATF, WCOM hold tremendous "value" here. But first tiers like VRSN, SDLI, QCOM .... could continue lower, if we rally though, look out.
What are you playing into next week.
Tj |
