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Pastimes : The 49 Tickers
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To: Wayne Rumball who wrote (43)3/30/2000 6:11:00 PM
From: ChrisJP   of 60
 
Yeah, oil prices might be a problem. I think I read somewhere that jet fuel was an airline's single biggest cost. I could be wrong.

As far as using oil prices as a excuse ... sure. But remember just 4 or 5 years back that airlines were LOSING $5 billion/year. They have to make money while they can because they can endure several years of sizable losses.

Another problem with transports currently has to do with DOW theory. The theory is that transports lead the DOW up and down. So if Alan G is trying to slow the US economy down, transports will feel it first.

I have not kept up with the macro economic picture lately since it has been so decoupled from the NASDAQ. And of course is only slightly relevant to the OTCBB.

I also tend to think of transports as not-as-regulated utilities. Tough for them to be momentum plays. Lots of people, capital, and logistics to run them. Now, if the NASDAQ and Internets recover, FDX and UPS might be good ones to look at.

I'm really not a transportation guy.

Have you considered cross checking some of stocks you are finding with the Russell 2000 or Russell small cap index stocks ? Or from the prospectus of a small cap value fund ?

Or maybe just buy into a small cap value fund. You would think fund managers would turn over a lot of rocks before they take their positions. If small cap value is where you want to put some money, let them do the dirty work.... and you can take a break from this nut house. :-)

Just my thoughts,
Chris
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