The End is Near!!!!
I would like to make an observation that my partially explain Net Shepherd's recent price retreat. For the past ten years I have recorded my observations of the trading activity of a number of the stocks that I have owned, to help me understand on a go-forward basis the trading
patterns of these companies during various times of the year.
Historically, the last 5-10 days of March have been "red days", with anywhere from a 20% to 40 %
decline in the share values of many stocks.In my discussions with several brokers,they attribute this phenomen to the coincidence of month-end and quarter-end huose cleaning. On top of this,add a good deal of margin-calling, especially if the selling becomes protracted.Many analyists who have been interviewed on the TV business programs over
the years tend to suggest the same explanation....the selling-margin calling cycle becomes a self fullfilling prophesy.
I believe that many investors bought into Net Shepherd(on margin) on the prospect of seeing a significant revenue contract materialize before March-end.Because that anticipated contract has not yet materialized,
some investors have now found themselves into a squeeze with the share price not having appreciated as expected. Unfortunately, these are most likely the investors that have been selling this past week or so.Individual stocks in general , especially those in the technology
sector, have been caught in the downward momentum of falling share prices.
From what I have noted,if the past is any indication,we will very soon see some bargain hunting occur.In fact, I believe that this will likely occur beginning late tomorrow . Investors who sold a coveted stock like Net Shepherd will want to buy back as soon as possible to reduce the
opportunity risk that brought them into the stock in the first place.
I took the opportunity today to add to my position in the company, as I'm sure many of you did as well.I believe that we'll look back at today's share price with envy in the coming days . On top of that, should we see an anticipated deal announced, there will undoubtedly be a
"buying frenzy" (as CC refers to) into Net Shepherd.
The next few days will undoubtedly be very interesting and potentially very financially rewarding.
Len |
