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Technology Stocks : Citrix Systems (CTXS)
CTXS 103.900.0%Nov 2 5:00 PM EST
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To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (7712)3/31/2000 12:09:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (2) of 9068
 
Chuzzlewit and all,

Now that I've looked at the numbers, I agree with Chuzz that it would be very difficult to make a case that the stock isn't overvalued. That's not a contradiction in which my previous comment was a guess based on not having reviewed the numbers and that, even so, that guess contemplated a "best case" scenario of the stock being fairly valued. But fairly valued, it ain't.

Even if the earnings report comes in on target or even with a slight upward surprise, I won't be surprised if it takes a long time for the stock to achieve the previous levels. It rode the wave of a Naz that increased 85% last year and was at an annualized rate this year of about 250% just a couple weeks ago. And I also believe the stock is also on a wave of misperception about the near-term imapct of the ASP market. Once that misperception is more accurately understood, maybe sanity will return to the perception of the stock's value.

Maybe.

--Mike Buckley
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