On ...............
<<u r awesome!>>
Susan, I would hate myself if I am right on a trade even 100 out of 100 times without a thinking of whats going behind it, I am happy that my trading style is based on analysis of long term under-currecnts in the market, that makes this thread very unique, and I assure you that one of the reason that this thread has gone dead from participation point of view is this ability of this thread to go behind the news and just not to become a picking and selling thread although that also I love to indulge in and I have some thorns too.gg
I don't make too much noise but I can go back and look at this thread with absolute joy, this post I am reporducing is hallmark of what at certain times look as very ordinary post, but these land-marks from crisis to crisis have made my self confidence high but also my understanding a markets absolutely good, I don't sell the market, I create oportunities and make trades out of news..
I buy and sell and make trades out of moves that helps me but it boils down to one thing solid hard thinking and analysis at 150 Km and hour with nice fast music in my auto when I am all by myself....thanks but we need to improve on this day by day and continue on with it irrespective of the number of posts bottom line is can I go back to my posts is this a coherent story, fortunately on that count Idea story is very much intact and to the point..
I take pride but little anyone understand it is an education for three young man who follow my style and trade every day where-ever I am, they can read their fathers mind, that is how I keep close contact with my sons and educate them with rational thinking process in one's life and in trading thati s most important, great medium and I am grateful to SI...
Sunday, Feb 27, 2000 5:18 AM ET
Reply # of 31019
This divergence can continue my target on Comp is still good two hundred points away, we can see that if 9800 does not hold we can test 9200 on DOW that would be the low and if Comp is around 4800-5000 at that point we may see that the twains shall meet if Comp retraces by 10% and DOW improves by 10% as market discounts two interest rates hike, all this is healthy overall as chances of a big drop are discounted..
Market at 9500 area will discount atleast .5% rise in rates but in my opinion the relationship between economic strength and monetary policy is not that meaningful may be some fiscal measures may be required to cool down the asset inflation, we are more threatened with the asset inflation than the commodity inflation, don't forget that Richardson trip to SA will bring some tangible drop in Oil prices, no one wants it at these levels, so CRB index may cool a bit, but AG is more worried about consumer spending and low un-employment, the shrinking of the labour pool is worrisome and he wants to contain the damage, if things go out of hand in my opinion he has always a pro-active stance and this is no change from the past, good to see nice pairs of hand on the stern but his ability to target the spending and slow down the economy is suspect, anyway it is not the industrial sector that is warming up the economy, capacity utilisation and industrial porduction figures will show you that they are not hitting new highs as has been the case in previous over heating instances...( amy be Lee can provide us with some p[icturs on this evidence if my assumption is factual)..
When the economy is driven by AMAT's and CSCO's billion's of $'s of orders where employment matters little or commodity has little role, the fall out and wealth effect is diffuclt to contain with the tools of monetary policy, the tech based revolution has generated new kind of wealth some hype some real but it would take some time to stabilise and new relationships and definitions of vlauations may work their way up through the complex models, until such time we will see two extremes , one is the extreme in valuation of Techs other extreme in sell off of the meembers of the old economy..
Now if you look at this NDX DOW divergence or Comp DOW divergence what it is telling you is that market is paying a huge premium for anticipated strength in future and discounting traditional sectors but a balance would reach, may be internets at 450 in last July were a steal but at 1500 they may be a sell and DOW at 9200 may be a steal and at 12000 a sell, for me these extremes need to be traded with extreme openess of mind and approach and that is what I am doing right now, KCOM entry into UK FTse on Thursday was exploited and so was ORCL weakness, and so would be MSFT 200 days MA flirting. 14 out of 17 times it has bounced off this level or within 5% of its 200 days MA.. Notice Vish.. I am answering your PM too...
Now Kelly is right, very early on as we were hot on IBM Kelly joined my optimism and we did well, for me I would like a mix of IBM's INTC TXN's MSFT'S and MER GS WFC JPM ...
on the other I would look at ELON PCLN VRIO pSIX.. BEAS.. my favourites and FDX UPS .. on beaten down LU BMCS I call it Mr Fix it for hackers threat great stock,, Brka and Brkb purely for big exposure to tradition.. and expertise of the old man for free... now this is my definition... how I play this market.. slowly but surely.. a mix of every flavour. sweet and spicy... love and best regards Ike..
I am extremely sorry, time is so limited for me and I sometime have to post these from make shift offices or borrowed lap tops gg but please ignore mistakes and spellings,, will be more careful once settled..from these travels. |
