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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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To: Bill Cotter who wrote (44516)	3/31/2000 12:26:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (3) of 99985

Bill, my post refutes John's and 9 out of ten chartists saying this is an ABC correction. Michael Watkins chart is quite revealing. As i've posted before We had a big contraction of new highs on the nas double top. We've had expansion of margin debt in the last three months. Massive uptick in volume in bulletin board stocks over the last three months. Put/call ratios hovering around .4 for the two week period to the march 10 peak. Swenlin's rydex ratio showing investors making an 81% allocation to bull funds (lion share to tech) with only 19% bearish or neatral money. and i believe my wave count in sunw is correct, it is the prettiest pattern of all the big cap techs. A lot of these low quality tech issues are just being killed here, i think it will eventually bleed into the big cap techs. Also I consider that Tiger hedge fund (value) going belly up as a contrary indicator (along with recent investor withdrawals from value funds) as a contrary indicator and i think investor preference will change from speculative/momentum to value. That may or may not be in the form of value stocks, but will certainly benefit bonds. thats the way this stoopid speculator see's it.

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