Acording to AOL's data feed, it would have been very difficult to pick up the stock below the price of $100 when Ritch is accurately reporting to you that the lowest the stock got this year was $105 5/8 on January 28.
Credibility is everything in this folder. Honest mistakes happen and maybe AOL's data feed is wrong, but I respect Ritch for taking the time to check out the details that contradict your memory.
I specifically remember Q streaming by on CNBC below $100 a few weeks back. I would never knowingly mislead the thread; nor have I ever in any of the thousand + posts that I have posted on the Fool and now here. The Q bottom data may have been Jan 28. Possibly I'm hallucinating, but I swear it happened. But in any event the point is and was lack of price volatility is not a Gorilla criteria. If it was we'd never have owned it last year and still wouldn't own it this year as their are much less volatile stocks out there. Buying Q at the top is not much less risky on a price volatility stand point than was buying ABGX at its recent top (Q, using $105 was 47.5% off of its high, ABGX currently is 66%). Reference to price volatility is a red herring. And whether Q fell 55% or 47.5% the point is the same.
When I see something that may be a good idea or interesting thought I write about it and appreciate discussion on it. That is how ideas get hashed about. Sometimes I even change my mind and learn things. But I presented it in a G&K framework. All of the elements are there: open, proprietary, enabling technology that is discontinuous, et al. Whether or not use of such framework in this area is beneficial, well that is what the discussion was about and was worthwhile having. Many good points were raised and hashed out.
However, one critical element I can bring to the discussion is the threads tendency to dismiss certain investments because of past disappointments or failures. For example general past biotechnology investing failures in companies which obviously had none of the G&K elements was no more relevant to G&K discussion than was the dismissal of RMBS from this thread due to past investing disappointments with it. Because of past disappointments this thread did not welcome discussion of the strong developments in RMBS value chain beginning in the middle to the end of December.
A post Gary X did started: I urge people who may have already closed their mind on this stock to re-examine. RMBS technology. Gary ended his post as: 'Nuff said. I know LindyBill thinks us Rambus'ers are a bit reckless, but the risk/reward scenario looks a little different on the other side of 7 digits.
I will, of course, refrain from more RMBS pounding on table if that's the thread concensus. But one day, I think, we will know Rambus as Rambo.
Past disappointments with the stock price largely limited talk of the G&K developments that were going on with RMBS. I won't rehash them, but on the Fool they were recognized and became a constant discussion. I still get e-mail to this day in regards to some of those discussions.
I like to examine business models and their relation to G&K investing. I have found this is the best indication of investment potential, not stock price or past disappointment. The ABGX discussion may not in the end be of the sort of investments that are worthy of the name G&K. However, how could we know until it was brought up? All the textbook elements are in place. The setting was a little different. It doesn't pay to dismiss something just because it may be a little foreign, or have disappointed us in the past.
As to Mike's question regarding a Gorilla in biotech, no, never found one yet. And as I said the traditional Amgen like companies are not Gorilla material. ABGX and MEDX's market is not typical. And I will state CATEGORICALLY THAT Caliper's market is a G&K market and game played in biotech. What Caliper does is create proprietary chips which are applied in bio and chemical applications and which utilise software. It is a semiconductor market with little to distinguish it from what CREE, INTC and AMD do. Traditional G&K markets do exist even in the biotech world. I just happened to propose one that to me was a more exciting investment opportunity and maybe a bit more exotic than a first foray in the subject should hvae been. Caliper may have been a much better example, and maybe I'll present it in the future.
Tinker |
