I didn't say nothing about this market being bubble or balloon! I didn't say I can justify price of CSCO or COMQ!
All I was trying to say is your prediction of what-not-when is like predicting everyone will be dead.
If I am in your prediction business, I'd be saying this whole damn universe is a bubble! It can and will (IMO) burst!!! The expansion of the universe, too long, too fast, and too crazy, is unsustainable. So folks who exit too early (i.e. die before the burst I predict) are winners?
Also, for every Nobel laureate you name who made your same points on TV, I can name two who went bankrupt due to their knawledge of the market: Merton and Scholes (of Long-Term Capital-Mixed-with-Some-Market-Timing-and-Day-Trading). I believe, in logic, this kind of persuasion by invoking authority is labelled 'name-calling'?
Okay, in the long run we are all dead, right?
Seriously, if you doubt that this is a bubble can you justify the price of stocks like CSCO or QCOM? How about the price of companies like CMGI, which relies on bringing a continuing flow of hot IPOs to market -- most of which will eventually fail , if history teaches us anything?
A few hours ago Dr. Franco Modigliano, Nobel laureate and one of the founders of modern portfolio theory, was on TV making the same points I did (without mentioning specific stocks). He said that it is impossible to time market tops (the when in your quip), and the only winners will be people who exit the market too early.
TTFN,
CTC |
