Tim, few responses: HAUP, I agree with your assessment, I can see it drop as low as $11 or , particularly if the NAZ cannot finds its footing and close above 4600. I was trying to play it for a bounce to $26 or so, but I think it will not get there, very dangerous right now.
CYMI, the problems might be deeper than association with ASML, it broke $50 and that was the breakout point (until the last rally above that, this was the "old time high), so right now, if one plays it, only for bounces to around $58 or so, I am not playing until I see the SOX heal. Check the SOX PnF and I think you will agree it has broken down. Maybe my thesis of an early peak (elucidated on the CYMI thread) is correct. Remember the equipment people peak a month or two before their BTB peak, historically. If AMAT breaks $80, I would say that is the proof required that the sector is done, of course, lesser stock will break before. ASML broke a neck in a head and shoulder pattern, very bad sign.
VLNC, where there is smoke, there is fire, I expect a second shoe to drop. Technically, a broken neck line at $26, right now a bounce (I was trying to get $24, the stock got there, but I just was not going to wait <vbg>, so I left a good $3 on the table. At least I got back half of my loss from the recent stop loss. I believe that the numbers brandied on the VLNC thread are not backed by fact, Fred is starting again with his over optimistic assessment (getting all of 600,000 QCOM, system for one, QCOM has other suppliers), the competition on price is becoming stiff, they may actually have a DRAM type problem on their hands. I'll see what the technical picture is, but frankly, in a bad market, I would not be surprised to see VLNC back under $10, and in the market I expect from here to election, probably a trading range of $15 to $22 or so. Been wrong before, but that is my current thinking.
CDTS and ANCR, right now I am more bullish on ANCR than on CDTS and SCON, I have (as of the close Friday) all three of them, the SC, I am planning to watch for a strong rally if the naz revives, ANCR could go to your $55, and since I have it from $38.5, it is not a bad trade. I do not think it will break under $34 and suggest buying in the $36 to $39 area if it gets there. All three are extremely volatile and $5 to $10 gains or loss in any day is quite the "norm". Got to thread carefully (and accept some whipsaws) when playing these.
Good luck out there.
Zeev
Zeev |
