All,
The problem lies more with the fact that in-depth analysis of all of the technology stocks will not reflect well on the current prices. Err, at least until 3 weeks ago.
If somebody wanted to break these things down as Crook did, he has a point in stating that revenues may not be as expected. However, there are large amounts of uncertainty which account for both the tremendous stock runs, and the points that people like Crook tried to make.
I guess the only big problem I really had with that whole thing was it seemed like Prudential was buying an awful lot of CMRC in the 152-153 range early Friday morning. Read whatever you want into something like that, but it looked pretty poor from where we were sitting. The better houses would be a little more subtle. Either that or their clients don't hold their opinions in very high regard.
Bottom line is, I don't think anyone, including the company officers, know exactly what pounds of flesh they will be able to extract, or even what kind of flesh it will be. However, software is a fairly lucrative business, and if CMRC keeps wrapping up deals with large multi-national and international companies, like they have been and Oracle and Ariba have not been at nearly the same rate, I would think that regardless of the current sentiment, the current market cap is probably low.
And for disclosure purposes, I have traded this once, from last September to December (105 to 240X3), and hold my current block at 152 from about 6 weeks ago. It may go down to 100, who knows, but I suspect we will see 200+ again sometime in the coming weeks. It's just a matter of time.
Don't blame Prudential. They just piled on to everyone else.
G |
