CTC
You make some very persuasive arguments, and certainly seem
to have a better grip on CFFO, FV and PV. Very useful tools
in putting a value on a company's current operations. But
not very useful in predicting the future value. You can
try these measures on Ampex, but not Amazon. Or, Yahoo!,
Cisco or Citrix. These stocks are volatile but that's not
the same thing as risky.
I am not an accountant so I'll never be able to ascertain
your CFFO and PV/FV computations. I assume they are right.
I do believe that there are different scaling factors for
relative market positions. So, two companies making
exactly the same widgets and growing at same rate will
have different multipliers depending on who's the leader.
Your formulae need some tweaking to capture this market fact.
Re. the Nobel Laureates (sp) and other market experts
whom you so eloquently quote. Personally, I think if
somebody found the way to a hidden gold mine, very unlikely
he or she is going to show the path to the rest of us.
So, those who talk either don't know, or are unsure.
Especially in the world of money where access to resources
is not much of an issue as, one might argue, it is in the
world of gold mining.
(this is not to say that these are not intelligent people.)
Regards
Dinesh |
