rudedog: thanks for your interesting reply. I remember when you did the option trades on COMPAQ you were using some "disposable cash" you had "won" on other trades (sorry if I am making this sound a bit like a casino).
Although CPQ was down in the $18-19 range at the time there were people on here and elsewhere calling for $15 and even $7. The low option price was a reflection of the panic in the air. So your trade was risky, even though calculated. I think it is probably true that your knowledge of the company stiffened your spine at a critical moment. But that is just reward for your industry and due dilligence.
I was impressed at the time and afterwards when you shared your strategy with other participants on this and other boards. I think that was generous and thoughtful of you. It certainly caused me to refresh my rusty knowledge of option trading. At the time I did not trade options but did buy COMPAQ at prices between $19+ and $20. I have since sold in the high 20's, bought again lower and sold in the 30's I suppose we all have a technique that suits our temperament.
I will buy COMPAQ again for a trade if it goes to $25, or spends some time in the low $26's. But I will not chase it if it moves higher in the short term. I think it will double in price before the end of January 2001, but I think other stocks can do that, too, sooner and at less risk.
I continue to believe that if reforms are executed, significant results won't start to appear on the bottom line until late in 2Q. Stronger results will come in the 2nd half and, once again, in 4Q. The big investment question is when will the market start buying the future improvement? The market usually anticpates by 6-9 months - but this is less true of individual stocks than of the market in general.
There is a general dispositon to believe that COMPAQ will recover - but the persistence of rumours about an impending warning demonstrates that confidence is still shaken by recent events. |
