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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology - Fundamentals
STX 287.52+4.4%3:59 PM EST

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To: MikeM54321 who wrote (1614)4/2/2000 3:22:00 PM
From: Mark Madden  Read Replies (1) of 1989
 
Mike -

Thank you for commentary you are providing on this thread. You bring out many original thoughts that deserve discussion. Here are some of my opinions in response.

1. I think you are right that optimism has the best of me.

2. The stockholders are losing up to $30 a share in this deal. IMHO SEG does not have the resources to offer under the table deals to make up this much. The institutions have the most to lose because of their large ownership. Besides, could they trust this new ownership?

3. It is possible Steve Luczo is being forced into this deal but he has been suspect ever since the founder and previous CEO, Al Shurgart, was cut down behind his back and ousted. Steve Luczo then became CEO. It will be up to a new Board of Directors to determine if Steve Luczo stays. I think not. He knew nothing of the disk drive business a few years ago and his performance has not been good. It is the enterprise drive business that has kept SEG from losing money the past few years. Even the enterprise drive business lost market share while Steve Luczo was in charge.

4. It is possible SEG could be sold to VRTS for the benefit of the shareholders but the shareholders deserve much more than 85% of the stock they already own and 5 bucks. More likely a company like EMC could do a leveraged buyout and spin off VRTS stock for sale to VRTS. Any company that purchases SEG needs to give the shareholders the value they deserve.

IMHO SEG has been a buyout candidate for months with the high value of VRTS shares. I believed a deal was not reached because SEG likely wanted $50 to $75 a share plus the VRTS value. A hostile takeover would be difficult because SEG would claim the company value is way more that any tendered amount. Now all that has changed and I expect to see several offers come forth. I expect them near June because most managers evaluating a takeover package will want to present them at the last minute. This will keep competitors from having time to implement their offer.

Regards,
Mark
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